Week of 21 January 2019
Macro EUR/USD forecast for the week of 21 January 2019: the Brexit and the BCE to follow this week on Forex for trading the Euro
The economic calendar for the week of 21 January 2019 will be very busy, but other news will be watching
Monday, 21 January will be a holiday in the United States. No statistic will be published.
Tuesday we will have figures for sales of existing homes at 16h00, expected down -1.0% after 1.9% previously.
Wednesday will be a very quiet day on the side of the US economic calendar.
The next day we will follow the Markit PMI at 15h45. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to 53.5 against 53.8 previously. The services PMI is expected at 54.2 after 54.4.
Finally, Friday we will follow orders for goods durable at 14h30, planned at 1.8% after the fall - 4.3% previously. Core orders are expected at 0.2% against 0.4% previously.
The week begins in the calm the Monday, 21 January, without no influential statistics in the euro area.
Tuesday we will follow the index ZEW German at 11h, waited to -18.3 after - 17.5 previously.
Wednesday will be another quiet day in the eurozone.
Thursday, 24 January will be the most important day of the week, with first at 10h00 the PMI figures. The Manufacturing PMI is expected unchanged at 51.4, while services PMI is expected to rise to 51.5 from 51.2 previously. Then at 13h45 we have the release of BCE rate, where no change is expected. Finally at 14h30 we will follow closely the press conference of Mario Draghi.
The week ends with the German Ifo at 10h00.
EUR/USD fundamental analysis
The EUR/USD pair has experienced a rather quiet week on the Forex, under only two bearish impulses at the beginning and at the end of week. So the tone remains overall negative, as we enter a very quiet week in terms of US statistics, but with news enough rich. On Monday we will have to remain attentive to the new Brexit plan presented by Theresa May and which will be voted on in Parliament. The folder will still continue to react the Forex and the Euro throughout the week.
Then, on Thursday we will have the meeting of the BCE's monetary policy, which we will also monitor closely, whereas it could impact the euro on the Forex. No major announcement is planned, but the speech of Draghi could bring surprises.
Finally, U.S. news, with first of all, politics and the shutdown could disrupt trade on Forex.
The week will be apparently fairly quiet in view of the economic calendar, but other folders could animate Forex.
Situation: the 18 January 2019
BTC/USD: chart formation in diamond in intraday
Cryptos-currencies market fell in 2018, certain cryptos losing close to 80% of their value, including the leader of them, Bitcoin. Many analysts believe that this market has no future without fundamental, intrinsic value, creating a risk of financial bubble with no basis, on the contrary a sort of Ponzi scheme. It is true that the fall in prices in 2018 argues in this sense but yet, the stock market expects many new in 2019 on cryptos-currencies, including the launch of several ETF, as well as decisions of regulation of financial regulators major (for example, the Securities Exchange Commission in the United States). The year 2019 is pivotal, she will tell if blockchain will see one of its applications, the Bitcoin and cryptos-currencies, become a regulated and sustainable tool in the international economy.
The year 2019 could result in the gradual implementation of an infrastructure that is regulated to the cryptos. Now let's look at the message of the technical analysis of the course of the Bitcoin which stabilizes between $ 3000 and $ 4000 since the middle of December.
The central technical question is thus to know if the course of the Bitcoin built a bearish continuation figure or a side training to return to upward downward trend in place since the beginning of the year 2018.
End of day data, some chartists identify a head and shoulders reverse, why not. I put above all highlight the presence of the daily cloud of the Ichimoku covering courses like a lead weight. That would be a positive signal to enter the daily cloud because underneath, the background Dynamics remains bearish.
In hourly data, I note a potential formation in diamond, so a chartist configuration of reversal, on the rise. We must therefore put under high surveillance resistance at $ 3800, to cross it would indeed be a bullish signal.